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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

However the latest race is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and recent strugglers improving collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still