Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
