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Within the widespread uncertainty surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation marked its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and abduct its leader – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He believes that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.