Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Drop Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The average count of everyday killings per month in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by recent administrative statistics. However, public safety specialists have advised that murder numbers might not indicate enhanced national safety.

Notable Reduction in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 murders a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when the President began the leadership in September of last year. This data was provided by the director of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen during these months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that last month the lowest figure of murders were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's highly militarised efforts to take on the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent times. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than the US. Since then, killings have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an ostensibly steeper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The main elements of the President's security strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Increased collaboration between various authorities.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

However, public safety experts cautioned that using homicide numbers to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is notably true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

As reported by the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical timeframe last year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer reliable for estimating the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the will to correctly recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of everyday homicides was additionally an issue because it could mask periods when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily mean makes surges of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can point to the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, per government data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

But despite these measures, Mexico is still plagued by severe violence, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to create a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas concluded.