A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
